BTC Price Prediction: 2025-2040 Outlook Amid Institutional Adoption Wave

#BTC

• Technical Divergence: Short-term MACD bearishness contrasts with institutional accumulation patterns
• Political Catalysts: GENIUS Act and pro-crypto election pledges may fuel 2025-2026 rallies
• Supply Shock: 880K BTC removed from circulation by long-term holders could amplify halving effects

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bearish Signals Amid Long-Term Bullish Trends

BTCC financial analyst Mia notes that BTC is currently trading at, slightly below its 20-day moving average (106,287.53). The MACD histogram (-389.55) suggests short-term bearish momentum, while Bollinger Bands indicate consolidation (Upper: 110,699.86, Lower: 101,875.20). ''The price hovering NEAR the middle band reflects market indecision,'' says Mia, ''but the long-term uptrend remains intact.''

Market Sentiment: Institutional Accumulation Offsets Whales'' Selling Pressure

BTCC''s Mia highlights conflicting signals:amid ETF speculation, while long-term holders accumulated 880K BTC. ''Whales selling ($3.3B outflows) are being absorbed by institutional demand (Pompliano''s $750M vehicle),'' she observes. Political catalysts (Trump''s pro-crypto stance) and corporate adoption forecasts ($330B inflow potential) could override technical resistance.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

8,000 Dormant BTC Linked to Coinbase Custody Move Amid ETF Speculation

Approximately 8,000 Bitcoin, inactive for three to five years, were recently transferred from Coinbase Custody, a service predominantly utilized by institutional investors. The movement has ignited speculation about potential large-scale accumulation for strategy portfolios or spot Bitcoin ETF allocations. Analysts suggest the timing points to institutional positioning, with names like BlackRock or MicroStrategy floated as possible actors.

The reactivation of long-dormant coins often signals strategic maneuvers, particularly when tied to institutional custody. CryptoQuant''s J.A. Maartunn noted the entity behind the transfer may have concluded its buying phase, remarking, ''Their buying spree might be done for this week.'' bitcoin traded near $104,800 on June 13, slightly off recent highs amid persistent volatility.

This activity coincides with growing institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and renewed discussions about the cryptocurrency''s long-term valuation. Bitwise recently outlined a bullish scenario projecting a $30 trillion market cap under optimal conditions.

Pompliano Launches $750M Bitcoin Investment Vehicle via SPAC Merger

Anthony Pompliano is spearheading a bold MOVE into institutional Bitcoin exposure with ProCapBTC, a new investment vehicle targeting $750 million in combined equity and convertible debt. The Morgan Creek Digital co-founder will merge his operation with blank-check company Columbus Circle Capital 1, leveraging its $250 million IPO proceeds from May.

The structure mirrors MicroStrategy''s playbook - using convertible debt to amplify Bitcoin purchasing power while avoiding traditional IPO hurdles. Cohen & Company''s involvement provides Wall Street credibility, accelerating public market access. Pompliano''s previous SPAC closed in under six months, suggesting rapid deployment of this war chest.

This comes as crypto markets rebound under a favorable US regulatory climate. The debt-equity hybrid approach allows deeper BTC accumulation than pure equity raises, though it introduces leverage risks. Institutional players are clearly preparing for the next phase of Bitcoin adoption.

Trump Pledges Crypto-Friendly Regulation Ahead of GENIUS Act Vote

U.S. President Donald TRUMP reaffirmed his commitment to crypto-friendly policies during pre-recorded remarks at Coinbase’s 2025 State of Crypto Summit. He criticized the Biden administration’s regulatory approach, calling it an "absolute war" on digital assets, and outlined his administration’s efforts to position America as the global leader in cryptocurrency.

Trump highlighted the creation of a presidential working group on digital assets, the appointment of a pro-innovation SEC chair, and the establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He also emphasized ongoing efforts to pass the GENIUS Act, which aims to support dollar-backed stablecoins and create clear regulatory frameworks for the crypto market.

The Senate is set to vote on the GENIUS Act on June 17, a move that could significantly impact the stablecoin landscape and broader crypto industry.

Bitcoin Sees $3.3B Inflows Amid Whale Selling and Long-Term Holder Accumulation

Bitcoin''s price dipped to $104,719 on June 11, marking a 2.41% daily decline, even as accumulation wallets absorbed 30,784 BTC worth $3.3 billion—the largest single-day inflow of 2025. These wallets, typically associated with long-term holders, now collectively hold 2.91 million BTC, signaling strong conviction in Bitcoin''s future despite short-term volatility.

Whale activity contrasts sharply with this trend. A prominent wallet deposited 1,000 BTC ($106 million) to Binance, continuing a profit-taking streak that began in April 2024. The whale has offloaded 6,500 BTC but retains 3,500 BTC, suggesting tactical distribution rather than a full exit. Meanwhile, long-term holders have aggressively added 881,578 BTC over the past 30 days, underscoring their bullish outlook.

Market metrics reveal potential turbulence. The NVT ratio has spiked, new address growth is slowing, and liquidation zones threaten increased volatility. Yet, the scale of institutional inflows hints at underlying strength, with large players positioning for upside even as retail sentiment remains cautious.

Coinbase Predicts $330B Corporate Bitcoin Wave Amid Systemic Risk Warnings

Coinbase Institutional forecasts new all-time highs for Bitcoin in late 2025 while sounding alarms about systemic risks from corporate adoption. Public companies now hold 820,542 BTC worth $88 billion—a 46% increase in participating firms since April.

The surge follows accounting rule changes in December 2024, creating what analysts describe as an ''attack of the clones'' scenario. Firms are replicating MicroStrategy''s Leveraged treasury strategy, with Bernstein projecting $330 billion in corporate Bitcoin allocations by 2029.

David Duong, Coinbase''s Global Head of Research, warns that bitcoin-focused publicly traded crypto vehicles introduce destabilizing forces. Convertible bond maturities and discretionary selling could create cascading market pressures.

Galaxy''s Novogratz Predicts Bitcoin Could Rally 10x to $1M on Adoption Wave

Bitcoin''s long-term potential remains a focal point for institutional investors despite recent volatility. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz posits a 10x surge to $1 million if adoption trends continue, drawing parallels to gold''s market cap. "The bull case becomes that over time young people care about it more than old people," he told CNBC, framing Bitcoin as gold''s digital successor.

MicroStrategy''s Michael Saylor amplifies this optimism, dismissing crypto winter concerns. "Winter is not coming back," he asserted, reinforcing Bitcoin''s status as a resilient store of value. The asset currently trades at $104,664.72, with over 75% of holders profitable—a signal of enduring confidence amid price fluctuations.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulate 880K BTC Amid Geopolitical Turmoil

Bitcoin demonstrated resilience despite a sharp sell-off triggered by escalating Middle East tensions. Prices held above $104,000 as long-term investors added 881,578 BTC in 30 days—the largest accumulation streak since April 2023.

Geopolitical risk dominated market sentiment after Israel''s strike on Iran sent shockwaves through risk assets. CryptoQuant data reveals steadfast conviction among BTC holders, with LTH supply reaching levels last seen during the 2021 bull market.

The divergence between short-term volatility and long-term accumulation suggests institutional players are using dips to build positions. Market structure appears stronger than price action indicates, with on-chain metrics painting a bullish contrarian picture.

Whales Accumulate Bitcoin Amid Retail Bearishness

Bitcoin whales and institutional investors are capitalizing on retail trader pessimism, accumulating BTC during periods of negative sentiment. Social media analysis reveals a stark divergence: retail discussions frequently predict sub-$70K prices, while large buyers accelerate purchases.

Market dynamics show aggressive accumulation NEAR all-time highs, contrasting with historical patterns of conservative buying at lower ranges. The current rally exhibits characteristics of peak exuberance, with sustained demand from market takers not seen since 2022.

Santiment''s multi-platform tracking identifies April''s price crash as a pivotal moment - retail fears of $70K collapses coincided with institutional buying surges. Blockchain data indicates most selling pressure comes from 3-6 month holders, while long-term investors maintain positions.

Former Wex Exchange Chief Dmitry Vasiliev to Face U.S. Charges in Money Laundering Case

Polish authorities have approved the extradition of Dmitry Vasiliev, former director of the defunct Russian cryptocurrency exchange Wex, to the United States. The Russian national was arrested in Warsaw in December 2024 at the request of U.S. authorities, who are pursuing charges related to alleged fraud and money laundering.

Vasiliev''s case is linked to the criminal investigation of Alexander Vinnik, co-founder of the infamous BTC-e exchange, which was succeeded by Wex. His lawyer, Alexander Surzhin, confirmed that the Polish Minister of Justice signed the extradition order, paving the way for Vasiliev to face charges that could carry a 25-year prison sentence.

The arrest underscores the U.S. government''s continued crackdown on cryptocurrency-related financial crimes, particularly those involving cross-border money laundering schemes. Vasiliev''s extradition follows Vinnik''s recent return to Russia after a protracted legal battle.

Bitcoin SOPR Divergence Emerges Amid Price Rally

Bitcoin''s price continues to defy expectations, holding firmly above the $100,000 threshold despite multiple retracement attempts. The asset''s bullish momentum appears unstoppable—yet beneath the surface, a critical on-chain metric tells a different story.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key indicator of market profitability, has been declining sharply even as BTC''s valuation climbs. Historically, SOPR movements have mirrored price action, spiking during rallies as investors lock in gains. This time, the divergence suggests subdued profit-taking behavior despite record highs.

Analysts note the anomaly could signal either cautious accumulation by long-term holders or an impending volatility event. Market participants are watching closely to see whether this decoupling resolves through price correction or metric recalibration.

Peter Schiff''s Bitcoin ''Major Top'' Claim Faces Scrutiny as Market Indicators Remain Neutral

Gold advocate Peter Schiff''s assertion that Bitcoin has formed a ''major top'' appears premature as none of the 30 key market indicators signaled overheating in June 2025. The cryptocurrency briefly dipped to $102K on June 12 amid geopolitical tensions, correlating with a 7% weekly loss and parallel declines in U.S. equities.

While Gold surged to $3,400 during the risk-off sentiment, Schiff''s comparison of BTC''s underperformance against the precious metal overlooks critical context. The BTC/gold ratio currently sits 22% below its 2021 peak, with historical data showing similar retracements precede rallies. Institutional adoption and treasury allocations continue providing structural support absent in previous cycles.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Mia projects a 10x-50x appreciation by 2040, contingent on Bitcoin capturing 10-20% of the global store-of-value market. ''Novogratz''s $1M prediction aligns with our bull case if adoption accelerates,'' she notes, while cautioning about regulatory risks highlighted by the WEX case.